Nathan4's blog

Cryptoforces?
By Nathan4, 40 hours ago, In English

UPDATE: Thanks to everyone who enjoyed it! I might not be able to catch-up with your requests, so I made a simple tool that lets you draw your own trend lines! There are also some common patterns attached at the bottom.

Spoiler

What this post is not about:

  • New algorithms invented — I'm 10 years away from that.
  • Asking for improvement suggestions — I know how to google before asking.
  • Proposing new ways of spotting cheaters — I agree that this is not the place for it.

Now if you're still interested in this post, I hope you enjoy the tale!

It was a normal day. As usual, I decided to solve some 800-rated problems to keep my activity streak alive (right?). I opened Codeforces, saw a new contest announcement popping out on the home page, and was about to scroll down and check the score distribution. But then I noticed something unusual:

Prizes? I don't remember seeing titles like this.

I quickly scrolled to the bottom, wondering what the prizes will be. Socks again? One pair per each or one per each?

And then it came up.

"...will receive prizes in USDT cryptocurrency in the..."

This was the first time that I saw the concept of crypto being put into use. All the previous things I've heard about it were ones like "this is dangerous!" or "this is illegal in China!". These sayings made me believe that I should not touch it. (Looking back, there appears to be a huge information gap about crypto).

But Codeforces giving cryptocurrency as prizes? Oh no I have to look into that.

What's the first thing I did?

Spoiler

Different definitions showed up, so did the classical "google feature".

And obviously, you know which one I expanded:

Yes, the source was from an extremely untrustworthy site. Yes, it was a comment from four years ago. But I did not think about these potential errors when there's literally a line saying that you can make 10% profit monthly from crypto. 10% profit a month, when compounded into 12 months, means that you're tripling the money (to be exact, 1.1^12 = 3.14)!

Now I'm going to skip the "do your own research" part. But putting it briefly, I discovered that the mechanism behind crypto trading is similar to trading stocks (I am not suggesting you to trade cryptos, absolutely NOT). There are usually three ways of trading: fundamental analysis where you evaluate their values, building trading bots where you set up quant models and let the bot trade for you, and technical analysis where you simply look at the trends.

The last one sounds familiar — I have for so many times stared at my Codeforces rating trend and tried to predict its directions, how hard can cryptos be!

So I began learning about the basics of technical analysis, and one fundamental thing I learned is that there are different trend lines:

Usually, this means that if you observe an existing trend line going on, then when the price falls onto the line next time, it is likely going to follow the trend (this is not real — don't believe it!).

I was extremely overconfident back then, so I quickly created a trading account and tried out more advanced technical analysis trading strategies. Did I make a profit or lost? That's irrelevant to this post, let's move on...

After learning and using technical analysis for a while, trend lines pop into my head every time I see a time-based graph.

That applies for Codeforces too. Now when I go to Tourist's profile, here's what I see:

And here's what I see from Jiangly's profile:

And just like that, I encourage you to also predict your future rating.

Is this prediction method reliable? Absolutely not. But my intention of sharing this tale is not about promoting technical analysis on your rating trend. I think a really enjoyable aspect from Codeforces's forum is that people share fun stuffs. Any fun stuffs. And I hope that you enjoyed reading this blog!

If there really need to be one takeaway, then it's gonna be this: even the top 2 coders on this platform have their troughs (or else there will be no uptrend), but in the end, the slope of the line is positive (even tibinyte2006's trend line is going up)! The broader gain is what really matters.

Ending notes:

  • Please don't be like me and trust random sources! Survivorship bias happens everywhere, especially in crypto tradings.
  • Feel free to apply technical analysis to your rating graphs and share the results! If you want me to help you analyze them, just ask (.) in the comments and I can draw a figure for you (will try to fit some trend line models to your graph).
  • It's good to be back after two months :)
  • UPD: Just found out that there's a similar one four years ago.
  • If you liked this blog, feel free to check out https://nathanchen.me/ and add me on Discord.
Tags fun
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40 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +7 Vote: I do not like it

Are you new stefdasca sir?

Predict mine please

Thanks

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    40 hours ago, # ^ |
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    perfect uptrend
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      40 hours ago, # ^ |
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      Thanks sir

      I will write to you when gm

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      29 hours ago, # ^ |
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      jmyszka orz

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40 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +1 Vote: I do not like it

Can you analyze mine please?

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    40 hours ago, # ^ |
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    I think it actually has patterns.

    Spoiler
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40 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +48 Vote: I do not like it

The tourist's rating chart is like Bitcoin in 2017—always going up, never crashing. Meanwhile, mine looks like the 2008 financial crisis.

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40 hours ago, # |
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As the pioneer in this groundbreaking technique of predicting future ratings, I'm pleased to see more people embracing these methods

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    40 hours ago, # ^ |
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    Just added your blog to the acknowledgements. Did not expect that I came across the same idea four years later. Thanks for telling!

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40 hours ago, # |
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predict mine please

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40 hours ago, # |
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Auto comment: topic has been updated by Nathan4 (previous revision, new revision, compare).

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40 hours ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine please?

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40 hours ago, # |
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Analyze mine and then that of the rainboy.

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    39 hours ago, # ^ |
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    Spoiler

    You don't even need to use trend lines to predict rainboy's rating. An if-else on his current rating is enough.

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine pls?

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39 hours ago, # |
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Analyze mine pls

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine please?

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine please

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39 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it

Predict mine please. d(`･∀･)b

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39 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +1 Vote: I do not like it

I find introduction of this blog really funny!

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39 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it

Analyze mine pls sirs

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you please predict mine too? Thanks

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    37 hours ago, # ^ |
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    hard one, needs more participation!

    Spoiler
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39 hours ago, # |
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can you predict mine as well?

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39 hours ago, # |
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Do mine too!

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine please

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39 hours ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine please?

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    27 hours ago, # ^ |
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    very stable trend, just need one high-performing contest!

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39 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +7 Vote: I do not like it

my cf trend line doesn't need to be predicted

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39 hours ago, # |
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Thanks for the post, the backstory is fun!

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38 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict me please?

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38 hours ago, # |
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Had a lot of fun drawing trends, but cannot catch-up with everyone -

so I just made a simple tool to let you fetch your rating and draw your predictions on your own! There's also a reference image at the bottom which covers some common technical analysis trends.

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38 hours ago, # |
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Auto comment: topic has been updated by Nathan4 (previous revision, new revision, compare).

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38 hours ago, # |
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Otherwordly please please

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    24 hours ago, # ^ |
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    hard one, but seems like there's a recent outbreak

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38 hours ago, # |
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Can u predict mine pls?

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38 hours ago, # |
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predict mine please

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38 hours ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +15 Vote: I do not like it

Can you analyse rainboy ?

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37 hours ago, # |
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Hey, can you predict where my rating will go? TIA!

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    24 hours ago, # ^ |
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    seems like there's some downtrends but I hope you can break that!

    Spoiler
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37 hours ago, # |
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predict mine please

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37 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict my rating please?

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37 hours ago, # |
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could you do for me as well?

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31 hour(s) ago, # |
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Thank you for this thorogh post. Can you predict mine plz? I know I'm not that high in rating nor have I participated a lot in the past couple of months.. sorry about that :(

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29 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine?

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27 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine please?

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23 hours ago, # |
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Wow, a good post and Idea. I will like to know how to create a program to do trend analysis . Can u help me?

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23 hours ago, # |
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@nathan4 pls predict mine

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    16 hours ago, # ^ |
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    This may be a sideway trend,do practise instead of asking for prediction.

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23 hours ago, # |
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Hi panda, can u predict me ?

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22 hours ago, # |
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Do mine.

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21 hour(s) ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine as well?

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21 hour(s) ago, # |
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analyse mine too, pls

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21 hour(s) ago, # |
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can you predict mine?? :pleadingface:

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21 hour(s) ago, # |
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Predict mine, pls

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20 hours ago, # |
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Predict mine, please Nathan4

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20 hours ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine please?

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19 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict me please? I'm a beginner.

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19 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine please!!!

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19 hours ago, # |
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Hi, could you be able to predict mine?) Nathan4

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    17 hours ago, # ^ |
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    I guess he'll find a head and a shoulder and tell you that you should be careful.

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19 hours ago, # |
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Analyze mine tooo Please!!

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    17 hours ago, # ^ |
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    Perhaps he'll find a sideway trend,try to do a break out.

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17 hours ago, # |
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Please analyze and predict mine :) Nathan4

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    17 hours ago, # ^ |
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    I guess he'll say this is a sideway trend or a slow growing trend,need a break out.

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17 hours ago, # |
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How many contests should I participate to make the prediction more precisely?

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    17 hours ago, # ^ |
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    I've checked yours,it's a growing trend generally,just keep participating and try to make your performance stable.

    For your question,I can't know how many exactly,just when the current trend is visible.

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17 hours ago, # |
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Can you analyze mine please?

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    17 hours ago, # ^ |
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    a long sideway trend,then a growing-up recently.

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16 hours ago, # |
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mine please

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14 hours ago, # |
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mine please :))

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12 hours ago, # |
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Thanks for your effort, I love what you did.

Predict mine pls ^⁠_⁠^ (I believe it's hard to predict cz I don't attend cf regularly so no enough data)

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3 hours ago, # |
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Can you predict mine please?

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83 minutes ago, # |
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Can you please predict how much more contest I need to participate to reach LGM, given that I will attend each available contest which start at least 1 hour before usual time?

If the answer is I can't reach LGM after all, output -1. Otherwise, print the answer modulo 998244353.

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