istiak_ahmed's blog

By istiak_ahmed, history, 7 hours ago, In English

The Birthday Problem is a fascinating probability question that seems counterintuitive at first. It asks: how many people do you need to have in a room before the probability of at least two people sharing the same birthday becomes greater than 50%?

Intuitively, you might guess that you would need a very large number of people for this to happen. After all, there are 365 possible birthdays (ignoring leap years for simplicity). However, the answer is surprisingly low: only 23 people are needed!

Here's why:

Imagine placing 23 people in a room. For each person, we consider their birthday as a random event (like a coin flip). There are 365 equally likely outcomes for each person's birthday.

Now, let's calculate the probability that no two people share a birthday. The first person can have any of the 365 birthdays. The second person can have any of the remaining 364 birthdays (since someone else already took the first day). This continues until the 23rd person, who only has 343 birthdays left to choose from (because 22 other people have already chosen birthdays).

So, the probability of no shared birthdays seems pretty high: 365 * 364 * ... * 343. But this isn't quite right. Why? Because the order in which we choose the birthdays doesn't matter. If John has a birthday on July 1st and Mary has a birthday on July 1st, it's the same scenario as Mary having a birthday on July 1st and John having a birthday on July 1st.

To account for this overcounting, we need to divide the probability we calculated above by the number of ways to order 23 people. This number is 23!, or 23 factorial (23 x 22 x 21 x ... x 1).

When we do the math, we find that the probability of no shared birthdays in a room of 23 people is actually quite low: around 0.507. This means the probability of at least two shared birthdays is 1 — 0.507 = 0.493, or about 49.3%.

So, the Birthday Problem demonstrates how probability can be surprising, even for seemingly simple events like coin flips. It highlights the importance of careful analysis and consideration of all factors when dealing with random events.

#include <iostream>
#include <vector>
#include <algorithm>
#include <random>

using namespace std;

const int DAYS_IN_YEAR = 365;

bool has_shared_birthday(const vector<int>& birthdays) {
  // Sort the birthdays for efficient comparison
  vector<int> sorted_birthdays = birthdays;
  sort(sorted_birthdays.begin(), sorted_birthdays.end());

  // Check for duplicates
  for (int i = 1; i < sorted_birthdays.size(); ++i) {
    if (sorted_birthdays[i] == sorted_birthdays[i - 1]) {
      return true; // Shared birthday found
    }
  }

  return false; 
}

int main() {
  const int NUM_PEOPLE = 23; 
  const int NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10000; 

  random_device rd;
  mt19937 gen(rd());
  uniform_int_distribution<> dis(1, DAYS_IN_YEAR);

  int shared_birthdays_count = 0;

  for (int i = 0; i < NUM_SIMULATIONS; ++i) {
    vector<int> birthdays;
    for (int j = 0; j < NUM_PEOPLE; ++j) {
      birthdays.push_back(dis(gen));
    }

    if (has_shared_birthday(birthdays)) {
      shared_birthdays_count++;
    }
  }

  double probability = static_cast<double>(shared_birthdays_count) / NUM_SIMULATIONS;
  cout << "Probability of shared birthdays in " << NUM_PEOPLE 
       << " people: " << probability << endl;

  return 0;
}

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By istiak_ahmed, history, 4 months ago, In English

When it comes to selecting the baby name, many parents find themselves overwhelmed by the sheer number of choices available. Each name carries its own unique meaning, cultural significance, and personal appeal. But what if we told you that choosing the ideal baby name could be modeled as a complex NP-hard problem?

The Problem Statement:

Optimal Baby Name Selection:

Imagine you are tasked with selecting the perfect name for a baby. However, this isn't just any ordinary selection process. You have a list of thousands of potential names, each with its own meaning, cultural significance, and compatibility with the parents' preferences. The challenge is to find a name that optimizes all these factors, ensuring that the chosen name has the highest possible "satisfaction score" based on various criteria.

Criteria for Name Selection:

Meaning Alignment: The meaning of the name should resonate with the values and beliefs of the parents. For example, names that mean "strength" or "wisdom" might be highly valued by certain families.

Cultural Significance: The name should be culturally appropriate, reflecting the family's heritage or desired cultural connection.

Popularity: The name should strike a balance between being unique and not overly common. A name that's too popular might lack individuality, while a rare name might be difficult to pronounce or spell.

Phonetic Compatibility: The name should sound harmonious when spoken with the last name, avoiding awkward or clashing combinations.

Family Tradition: The name should consider any existing family traditions, such as naming after ancestors or following specific naming patterns.

To aid in the decision-making process, the parents can use tools and resources like those found on Baby Names Website, where they can explore name meanings, origins, and cultural significance.

The NP-Hard Challenge

Given these criteria, the problem of selecting the optimal baby name can be modeled as an NP-hard problem. Why? Because the solution space is vast and the criteria are often conflicting. For example, a name that perfectly aligns with cultural significance might not be phonetically compatible with the last name, or a name with a desirable meaning might be too popular, reducing its uniqueness.

To make matters more complex, consider that each criterion has its own weight based on the parents' preferences. Some parents might prioritize meaning over phonetic compatibility, while others might focus on cultural significance above all else.

The Algorithmic Approach

While there is no polynomial-time algorithm that can guarantee the optimal solution for every instance of this problem (since it's NP-hard), heuristic approaches can be applied to find a satisfactory solution. Techniques such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, or even simple greedy algorithms can be employed to explore the solution space efficiently.

For instance, a genetic algorithm could simulate generations of name choices, each evolving and mutating based on the parents' criteria until a near-optimal solution is reached.

Could anyone suggest any good algorithm for finding the solution for the problem stated above?

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